{"id":156769,"date":"2021-09-08T19:30:23","date_gmt":"2021-09-08T09:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=156769"},"modified":"2021-09-08T18:02:05","modified_gmt":"2021-09-08T08:02:05","slug":"why-i-am-optimistic-about-the-economic-recovery-of-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/why-i-am-optimistic-about-the-economic-recovery-of-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Why I am optimistic about the economic recovery of Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>With all the lockdowns happening in Australia, it is very hard to keep a positive, optimistic, future-focused perspective.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-154183 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/covid-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"Covid\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/covid-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/covid-800x450.jpg 800w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/covid-600x338.jpg 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/covid.jpg 976w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Of course we need to remember that compared to all other areas of the globe we are managing pandemics extremely well.<\/p>\n<p>Oceania has 35 COVID deaths per 1 million residents.<\/p>\n<p>This compares to around 15,000 COVID deaths per 1 million residents in the US or in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>South America even has 2,600 cases of deaths per 1 million residents.<\/p>\n<p>So we are doing incredibly well from the 'save a population' perspective.<\/p>\n<p>We are, of course, hurting our economy with all those lockdowns.<\/p>\n<p>In order to keep recovery in mind, I focus on 3 specific issues that make me optimistic when I look into the future of Australia.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Why I am optimistic about the economic recovery of Australia\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_U8yVE1hlmvM\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/U8yVE1hlmvM\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/U8yVE1hlmvM\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT7M12S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2021-08-29T02:30:54Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_U8yVE1hlmvM\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/U8yVE1hlmvM\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Why I am optimistic about the economic recovery of Australia<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/U8yVE1hlmvM\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/U8yVE1hlmvM\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Why I am optimistic about the economic recovery of Australia\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"This video summarizes my latest column (read for free here, there is no pay wall): https:\/\/thenewdaily.com.au\/news\/national\/2021\/08\/29\/covid-economy-australia-stats\/ It\u2019s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when you obsess about the next daily case count. Let me tell you about three reasons why I am optimistic about the future of Australia. Let&#039;s connect on social media: LinkedIn https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/simonkuestenmacher Twitter https:\/\/twitter.com\/simongerman600 Facebook https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SimonGerman600 Instagram https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/simongerman600 If you are interested in commissioning demographic research for your organisation, please reach out via: https:\/\/www.tdgp.com.au\/ If you need a speaker for your next conference or a boardroom briefing please reach out via: https:\/\/www.simonkuestenmacher.com\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL img-responsive\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"the-first-one-is-actually-a-demographic-profile\">The first one is actually a demographic profile.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>We have this big millennial cohort that saves us from the immediate impacts of the pandemic simply because the millennial cohort, the largest cohort happens to be on this stage of a life-cycle where they purchase housing.<\/p>\n<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"the_sentiment_campaign_body_\"><\/div>\n<p>This is the highest spending phase of a life cycle \u2014 so we do have at least very high spending in the economy at the moment that saves Australia quite a bit.<\/p>\n<p>International students will return, as soon as the pandemic is over, to Australia that is very important because they bring money but also because they are re-living the inner cities.<\/p>\n<p>The inner cities are, of course, the areas of the cities that suffer the most because we work from home, we don't go to the city centers to work anymore.<\/p>\n<p>International students in Australia happen to live in the inner cities overwhelmingly.<\/p>\n<p>And now, when they are gone, the inner city is a little bit of a ghost town at the moment.<\/p>\n<p>International students will return simply because the demand for international education hasn't shrunken over the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-156771 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/international-students-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"International Students\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/international-students-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/international-students-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/international-students.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The kinds of jobs that we recruited during the pandemic were knowledge work jobs that require a university level of education.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the whole world is actually shifting towards more knowledge work that needs you to have an education.<\/p>\n<p>The US lost ground as an attractive university or college educational destination \u2014 you just need to listen to the entire immigrant rhetoric under President Trump that frightens away a couple of international students.<\/p>\n<p>Those guys go elsewhere \u2014 largely Canada and Australia \u2014 once this will return back to normal.<\/p>\n<p>So, that's good news for the economy.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"the-other-idea-is-that-international-talent-will-come-back\">The other idea is that international talent will come back.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>And that's a difficult question because in a sense that we decide how much international talent we let into the country, how many skilled workers do we need in order to grow an economy.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-156773 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/skilled-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Skilled\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/skilled-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/skilled-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/skilled.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>At the moment we experience massive skill shortages in Australia.<\/p>\n<p>Our federal budget allowed for quite a bit of investment into big-scale infrastructure that at the moment we do not have workers to fill all of those jobs.<\/p>\n<p>Sure enough, we can throw the TAFE system, make sure that we upskill certain people, a couple of unemployed people into these sectors; we can ensure that the current cohort of high-school graduates as fast as possible goes through high-quality TAFE program to fill those jobs but there is a time delay with this so we will need international talent back rather soon.<\/p>\n<p>Will international talent want to come to Australia?<\/p>\n<p>The answer is probably 'yes' simply because there are other areas that are not managing the world all that well.<\/p>\n<p>If I think of Hong Kong for example, if I am a youth or relatively young worker and I see how my freedoms are being depleted I am probably keen to leave.<\/p>\n<p>Similar trends are the case for other regions of the globe.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-156774 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/elderly-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Elderly\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/elderly-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/elderly-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/elderly.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If I am a young worker in my 20s or 30s in Europe and I am seeing the aging population there, absolutely no interest in increasing migration into Europe, I am thinking, \"I am the one who's paying for the aging population that is not willing to shrink pensions\".<\/p>\n<p>I am thinking, \"Now I am going to be taxed to death there, so I might go to Australia where the tax regime is relatively more in the favour of the worker\".<\/p>\n<p>So, that probably makes sure that we have the workers return.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"what-about-international-capital-flows\">What about international capital flows?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>That's the more complicated question.<\/p>\n<p>International capital is super keen to invest a lot of money into a lot of different things around the globe.<\/p>\n<p>Part of this is the Canadian Pension Fund, Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund \u2014 those guys have to invest billions and billions of dollars, and increasingly they try to take a look for investments outside Europe, outside of America simply because of border migration pressures on those countries become a bit more difficult.<\/p>\n<p>All of those things probably point to the big investors seeking capital investments outside of the current TOP fields, so they go for relatively secure economies to invest in, ideally the industrialised democracies with decent population growth.<\/p>\n<p>There are not that many around.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-156775 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/AU-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Au\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/AU-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/AU-600x450.jpg 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/AU.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>And just by that Australia is a TOP destination for international capital flows.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, I do think that we have enough positives going on in Australia that we can actually focus on or take the focus away from the daily COVID update numbers, and concentrate a bit on what is ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Because if you plan for the decade ahead right now you have an advantage because you move wherever one else is just trying to survive.<\/p>\n<p>So right now is the correct phase to strategise, make investments, and boldly plan for Australia's future.<\/p>\n<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"the_sentiment_campaign_mobile_\"><\/div>\r\n<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"the_sentiment_campaign_desktop_\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With all the lockdowns happening in Australia, it is very hard to keep a positive, optimistic, future-focused perspective. Of course we need to remember that compared to all other areas of the globe we are managing pandemics extremely well. Oceania has 35 COVID deaths per 1 million residents. This compares to around 15,000 COVID deaths&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":125,"featured_media":156770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,3],"tags":[129,1183],"class_list":["post-156769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-property-updates","category-property-investment","tag-featured","tag-homepage-top"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why I am optimistic about the economic recovery of Australia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With all the lockdowns happening in Australia, it is very hard to keep a positive, optimistic, future-focused perspective. 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