{"id":157411,"date":"2021-10-02T15:30:53","date_gmt":"2021-10-02T05:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=157411"},"modified":"2021-10-01T23:07:28","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T13:07:28","slug":"heres-how-apra-caps-could-impact-how-much-you-could-borrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/heres-how-apra-caps-could-impact-how-much-you-could-borrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s how APRA caps could impact how much you could borrow"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Council of Financial Regulators<\/a> today announced APRA will consider possible macroprudential policy responses to address the medium-term risk created as a result of surging loan sizes.<\/strong> \"Recession<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ultra-low interest rates, strong demand for housing and soaring prices are stretching more borrowers into higher debt-to-income brackets.<\/p>\n

While the regulator\u2019s focus is on lending standards, changes under consideration are likely to help cool property prices.<\/p>\n

Any new policy response must also ensure first home buyers are not unfairly impacted.<\/p>\n

The discussion comes on the back of figures out this month showing 21.9 per cent of all new loans funded in the June quarter had a debt-to-income the ratio of six or more, which is considered risky by APRA.<\/p>\n

This is up from 16 per cent of all new loans funded in the June 2020 quarter.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

New loans with a debt-to-income ratio of 6 or more<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
June quarter 2020<\/strong><\/td>\nJune quarter 2021<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16.0% of all new loans<\/td>\n21.9% of all new loans<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: APRA quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution statistics, all ADI\u2019s, released Sept 2021.\"House<\/p>\n

What APRA lending caps could potentially include:<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Potential changes<\/strong><\/td>\nDetails<\/strong><\/td>\nPros<\/strong><\/td>\nCons<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt-to-income ratio caps<\/strong><\/td>\nLimit the number of new loans with a debt-to-income ratio of 6 or more.<\/td>\nHelp prevent people from taking on risky levels of debt.<\/p>\n

Could curtail investors buying multiple properties.<\/td>\n

Could create a barrier for first home buyers unless exemptions are made.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tightening of serviceability requirements<\/strong><\/td>\nMandate serviceability floor rates or increase buffers. Currently, banks stress test loans at rates 2.5% higher or their floor, whichever is higher. Big 4 bank average floor is 5.09%.<\/td>\nWill help protect people from mortgage stress when rates rise.<\/td>\nCould unfairly impact first home buyers.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Investor lending caps<\/strong><\/td>\nLimit lenders to a set proportion of new loans to investors. From Dec 2014 \u2013 April 2018 APRA limited banks to 10% growth in investor loan books.<\/td>\nReduces the number of investors competing with first home buyers and other owner-occupiers.<\/td>\nInvestor loans are still proportionally at acceptable levels. The previous cap had limited success cooling property prices.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Low loan-to-value ratios caps<\/strong><\/td>\nLimit the number of new loans with small deposits. Caps could vary according to borrower type (investors are likely to be required to have larger deposits).<\/td>\nReduces risk in lending portfolios, particularly in the case of falling property prices.<\/td>\nCould unfairly target first home buyers unless exemptions are made. The proportion of low deposit loans fell in the most recent APRA data.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-only caps<\/td>\nCap the number of new loans that are interest-only. Between March 2017 and December 2018 banks were required to limit interest-only loans to 30% of new lending.<\/td>\nEncourages borrowers to pay down their debt, protecting them when rates do rise. Could deter investors.<\/td>\nInterest-only lending is currently well below the previous cap and therefore not required.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combination of the above<\/strong><\/td>\nAPRA could implement a cap that looks at a combination of levers to reduce risk without penalising first home buyers.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

RateCity.com.au<\/a> research director, Sally Tindall, said intervention from APRA would be welcomed, however, any new macroprudential policy measures must be carefully considered.<\/p>\n

\u201cRecord low rates mean people can borrow more without blowing the budget, but what is blowing out are loan sizes,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cMeasures designed to curb people\u2019s borrowing power will help prevent some from taking on risky levels of debt, however, first home buyers must be supported in the process.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny regulation changes must make provisions for younger Australians to still be able to enter the housing market,\u201d she said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now I disagree!<\/span><\/h2>\n

I remembered how macroprudential controls had undesired and unexpected consequences when they were introduced in 2015 \u2013 so I'd be very wary of any changes introduced again.

<\/div><\/p>\n

Dr. Andrew Wilson and I discussed this in our recent Property Insiders video<\/a> and Dr. Wilson explains there is simply no case for interference in our housing market<\/a> in this<\/a> insightful article.<\/p>\n

The last time lending restrictions were implemented in 2017, the focus was on dampening investor lending and the high percentage of interest-only mortgages.<\/p>\n

However, this time around the main concern seems to be an increasing share of loans on a high debt-to-income ratio.<\/p>\n

The problem is the potential restrictions are likely to hit first home buyers rather than Australia\u2019s wealthy households.<\/p>\n

Targeting debt-to-income ratios will have a limited impact on higher-wealth households, who often have multiple streams of income.<\/p>\n

However, it will affect lower-income households and those purchasing property for the first time.<\/p>\n

There are several reasons the debt to income ratio has risen over the past year.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Firstly, the current low-interest rates<\/strong> allow borrowers to service more debt as the cost of money has fallen.<\/li>\n
  2. The share of lending to first-home buyers has increased significantly on the back of HomeBuilder, the federal government\u2019s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, and individual state government incentives. Obviously, first-home buyers tend to be more indebted as they stretch to get into the market.<\/li>\n
  3. Another reason that the debt to income ratio is have increased is that many established homeowners have upgraded their homes over the last year or two, partly because of the low-cost borrowing, partly because the value of the home has increased considerably given them equity to upgrade and also because of the increased requirements for more space such as a zoom room, etc.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    What a cap on debt-to-income would look like<\/span><\/h2>\n

    A ban or cap on new lending with a debt-to-income ratio of 6 or more would limit the amount many families could borrow to purchase a property.<\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/strong>Family buying a house:<\/u> maximum borrowing capacity of the average family if limited to a debt-to-income ratio of under 6<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Note: Bank survivability tests would also apply and could potentially further limit people\u2019s buying capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\nAnnual family income <\/strong><\/p>\n

    (1.5 full-time wages)<\/strong><\/td>\n

    		Borrowing capacity with debt-to-income ratio under 6<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian house price<\/strong><\/td>\nBorrowing capacity required (20% deposit)<\/strong><\/td>\nBorrowing capacity required (10% deposit)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Sydney<\/td>\n$137,615<\/td>\n$824,316<\/td>\n$1,293,450<\/td>\n$1,034,760<\/td>\n$1,164,105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Melbourne<\/td>\n$136,555<\/td>\n$817,962<\/td>\n$954,496<\/td>\n$763,597<\/td>\n$859,046<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Brisbane<\/td>\n$128,443<\/td>\n$769,371<\/td>\n$691,214<\/td>\n$552,971<\/td>\n$622,093<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Adelaide<\/td>\n$122,452<\/td>\n$733,489<\/td>\n$568,110<\/td>\n$454,488<\/td>\n$511,299<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Perth<\/td>\n$146,617<\/td>\n$878,233<\/td>\n$556,509<\/td>\n$445,207<\/td>\n$500,858<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Hobart<\/td>\n$118,615<\/td>\n$710,501<\/td>\n$684,737<\/td>\n$547,790<\/td>\n$616,263<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Darwin<\/td>\n$132,226<\/td>\n$792,031<\/td>\n$572,102<\/td>\n$457,682<\/td>\n$514,892<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Canberra<\/td>\n$148,871<\/td>\n$891,736<\/td>\n$933,960<\/td>\n$747,168<\/td>\n$840,564<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Notes: Family income is estimated at 1.5 times the average ordinary time earnings per state in original terms (ABS). Median house prices are from Core Logic August 2021 except Perth which is July 2021.<\/p>\n

    A debt-to-income ratio of 5.99 is assumed. LMI costs are not included.<\/p>\n

    Singles buying a unit:<\/u> maximum borrowing capacity of an average worker if limited to a debt-to-income ratio of under 6<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Note: Bank survivability tests would also apply and could potentially further limit buying capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\nAnnual wage <\/strong><\/td>\nBorrowing capacity with debt-to-income ratio under 6<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian unit price<\/strong><\/td>\nBorrowing capacity required <\/strong>(20% deposit)<\/td>\nBorrowing capacity required <\/strong>(10% deposit)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Sydney<\/td>\n$91,744<\/td>\n$549,544<\/td>\n$825,514<\/td>\n$660,411<\/td>\n$742,963<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Melbourne<\/td>\n$91,036<\/td>\n$545,308<\/td>\n$615,909<\/td>\n$492,727<\/td>\n$554,318<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Brisbane<\/td>\n$85,628<\/td>\n$512,914<\/td>\n$425,777<\/td>\n$340,622<\/td>\n$383,199<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Adelaide<\/td>\n$81,635<\/td>\n$488,992<\/td>\n$364,575<\/td>\n$291,660<\/td>\n$328,118<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Perth<\/td>\n$97,744<\/td>\n$585,489<\/td>\n$404,257<\/td>\n$323,406<\/td>\n$363,831<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Hobart<\/td>\n$79,076<\/td>\n$473,668<\/td>\n$523,856<\/td>\n$419,085<\/td>\n$471,470<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Darwin<\/td>\n$88,150<\/td>\n$528,021<\/td>\n$349,698<\/td>\n$279,758<\/td>\n$314,728<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Canberra<\/td>\n$99,247<\/td>\n$594,491<\/td>\n$525,971<\/td>\n$420,777<\/td>\n$473,374<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Notes: Average wage is from the ABS Average Weekly Earnings, ordinary time earnings per state in original terms. Median unit prices are from Core Logic August 2021 except Perth which is July 2021. A debt-to-income ratio of 5.99 is assumed. LMI costs are not included.<\/p>\n

    NOW READ: <\/span><\/strong>What\u2019s the difference between borrowing capacity and affordability?<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/div>\r\n
    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Council of Financial Regulators today announced APRA will consider possible macroprudential policy responses to address the medium-term risk created as a result of surging loan sizes. Ultra-low interest rates, strong demand for housing and soaring prices are stretching more borrowers into higher debt-to-income brackets. While the regulator\u2019s focus is on lending standards, changes under…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":148517,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,1075,3],"tags":[129,1183],"class_list":["post-157411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-property-updates","category-michael-yardney-property-investment-expert","category-property-investment","tag-featured","tag-homepage-top"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHere's how APRA caps could impact how much you could borrow<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Council of Financial Regulators today announced APRA will consider possible macroprudential policy responses to address the 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