{"id":163070,"date":"2022-04-05T10:00:14","date_gmt":"2022-04-05T00:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=163070"},"modified":"2022-04-12T20:26:22","modified_gmt":"2022-04-12T10:26:22","slug":"australias-population-growth-was-just-0-3-year-on-year-but-is-set-to-lift-as-migration-starts-to-recover","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/australias-population-growth-was-just-0-3-year-on-year-but-is-set-to-lift-as-migration-starts-to-recover\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia’s population growth was just 0.3% year on year, but is set to lift as migration starts to recover"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s population grew just 0.3% year on year in Q3 2021, with growth well below the pre-pandemic average of 1.6% given the closed international border from March 2020, with a staged reopening beginning 1 November 2021.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In terms of heads, this equates to the population increasing by just 68,900 people compared to 380,000 a year prior to the pandemic.<\/p>\n

The closed international border during the pandemic saw net migration swing sharply negative from June 2020, and over the past year was -67.2 thousand compared to +250 thousand a year prior to the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"Population<\/p>\n

What's ahead?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Looking forward, the phased re-opening of the international border in November 2021 is starting to see a pick-up in net international arrivals into Australia.<\/p>\n

The government noted over one million people have entered Australia, including more than 130,000 international students, 70,000 skilled migrants and 10,000 working holidaymakers.<\/p>\n

The government is projecting population growth to lift to 0.7% in 2021-22 and get to 1.2% in 2022-23.

<\/div><\/p>\n

Underpinning the pick-up is net positive migration of 41 thousand in 2021-22, 180 thousand in 2022-23 and 213 thousand in 2023-24.<\/p>\n

In a recent research report NAB identified 3 interesting themes emerging during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. There has been a large pick-up in net interstate migration into QLD since the pandemic began from NSW and VIC;<\/li>\n
  2. In terms of urban areas, outer-suburban areas near capital cities have seen the greatest growth in population during the pandemic, though many regional areas have actually grown at a slower rate than their pre-pandemic trends;<\/li>\n
  3. Births have recovered from their pandemic lows to be at their highest level ever.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"Australia's<\/p>\n

    State dynamics<\/span><\/h2>\n

    In terms of state population changes, Queensland saw the highest population growth rate of 1.1%, while VictoriaI saw a large fall of -0.5%.<\/p>\n

    Much of this can be explained by net interstate migration with Queensland seeing a net inflow of people from other states of 40,600 over the past year compared to a pre-pandemic annual rate of 23,000.<\/p>\n

    \"Net<\/p>\n

    Since the pandemic began, 59,700 people have moved on net to QLD with those net arrivals largely coming from NSW and Victoria.<\/p>\n

    \"Qld<\/p>\n

    As for the other states, population growth was relatively weak elsewhere \u2013 WA (+0.7%); NSW (+0.3%); SA (+0.1%); TAS (+0.0%); ACT (-0.1%); and NT (-0.2%).<\/p>\n

    \"Population<\/p>\n

    \"Net<\/p>\n

    Births<\/span><\/h2>\n

    The birth rate has been under focus given the sharp fall seen at the height of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

    Encouragingly births had started to recover from March 2021 and on a quarterly basis are at their highest ever.<\/p>\n

    Anecdotes of maternity units being at capacity at many hospitals is a testament to this.<\/p>\n

    It is likely most of the pick-up in births represents \u2018catch-up\u2019 for families who postponed having children amid uncertainty at the height of the pandemic, rather than a sustained increase.<\/p>\n

    \"Components<\/p>\n

    Regional dynamics<\/span><\/h2>\n

    There was a slight decrease in people living in capital cities (-0.1%) with Melbourne (-1.3% or -65.1 thousand people less) seeing the biggest fall.<\/p>\n

    Outer-suburban areas within capital cities saw the most growth driven by net internal migration as people moved from inner urban areas.<\/p>\n

    This can be seen looking at the top three urban areas by % change increases, which included Victorian outer-suburban towns Warragul, Drouin (+3.7%) and Bacchus Marsh (+2.9%).<\/p>\n

    \"Population<\/p>\n

    In terms of absolute growth outside of capital cities, The Gold Coast-Tweed Heads (+9.4 thousand), Newcastle-Maitland (7.5 thousand), Sunshine Coast (+5.6 thousand) and Geelong (+5.4 thousand) were top destinations, though most of these increases were below pre-pandemic averages.<\/p>\n

    \"Population<\/p>\n

    In the top 20 growing urban areas, only six saw population growth in excess of pre-pandemic trends (Newcastle-Maitland, Ballarat, Warragul-Drouin, Port Macquarie, Bacchus Marsh, Morisset-Cooranbong).<\/p>\n

    Guest Author:<\/strong> Olivia Kristensen, National Australia Bank \u2014 the original article appeared here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

    <\/div>\r\n
    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Australia\u2019s population grew just 0.3% year on year in Q3 2021, with growth well below the pre-pandemic average of 1.6% given the closed international border from March 2020, with a staged reopening beginning 1 November 2021. In terms of heads, this equates to the population increasing by just 68,900 people compared to 380,000 a year…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":98,"featured_media":155719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[1201],"class_list":["post-163070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-property-updates","tag-weekly-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia's population growth was just 0.3% year on year, but is set to lift as migration starts to recover<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Australia\u2019s population grew just 0.3% year on year in Q3 2021, with growth well below the pre-pandemic average of 1.6% given the closed 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