{"id":172811,"date":"2025-05-15T19:30:32","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T09:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=172811"},"modified":"2025-05-17T09:07:23","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T23:07:23","slug":"house-prices-in-australia-over-the-last-10-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/house-prices-in-australia-over-the-last-10-years\/","title":{"rendered":"House Prices in Australia Over the Last 10 Years and What\u2019s Ahead For the Next Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"

How long does it take for the price of a well located property to double?<\/p>\n

Do property values really every 10 years? And what can we expect to happen to the value of the property over the next decade?<\/p>\n

Let me start by saying that the idea that property values double every 7 to 10 years is one of those real estate myths that gets repeated frequently.<\/p>\n

And while it\u2019s rooted in historical trends, particularly from the 1970s, 80s and 90s when inflation was high and property values grew strongly, it\u2019s too simplistic and doesn\u2019t hold up in today\u2019s more complex market.<\/p>\n

This myth likely stems from the long-term average annual capital growth rate of around 7% (according to the ABS figures going back 40 years), which, when compounded, does indeed lead to doubling in roughly a decade.<\/p>\n

But averages are just that - averages.<\/strong><\/p>\n

They gloss over the ups and downs, the booms and busts, the flat periods, and the hot streaks that make up real-life property market cycles.<\/p>\n

What many forget is that markets move in cycles, not straight lines. Prices don\u2019t rise in neat increments year after year.<\/p>\n

There are periods of rapid growth (like 2021 when interest rates plummeted) followed by plateaus or corrections (as seen in parts of 2022 when interest rates started rising).<\/p>\n

So while some properties might double in under a decade during a strong cycle, others might take 15 or even 20 years.<\/p>\n

To make sure your property outperforms the averages, when it comes to buying an investment property, you want to make sure you\u2019re putting your money into an investment-grade property<\/a>\u00a0in a growth suburb.<\/p>\n

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Tip: <\/span>Due diligence is key here, so it\u2019s vital to do your research into location, demand levels, property types, and long-term price trends to make the best investment decision.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

Rather than looking at short-term growth, it\u2019s important to look at the average house price growth over at least 10 years<\/strong> as this gives a great indicator of what to expect from your investment property in the next 10 years or so.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, looking at the performance of a location or a particular property over a shorter period can be deceptive.<\/p>\n

\"Investors\"<\/p>\n

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Note: <\/span> Before we explore how each capital city has performed over the last decade it is worth noting that the period since 2020 has been unusual. <\/p><\/div><\/div>\n

We had an initial COVID-driven surge with a once in a generation property, because interest rates plummeted , then this was followed by interest rate hikes that significantly cooled the market.<\/p>\n

Around Australia the pace of growth was uneven, driven by local economic growth, supply constraints, regional demand, and affordability.<\/p>\n

Some cities, like Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, saw stronger growth thanks to interstate migration and affordability, while Melbourne properties languished due to local economic challenges.<\/p>\n

If inflation remains under control for the rest of the decade, I see property values continuing to rise but more slowly, and it may take longer than 10 years for prices to double.<\/p>\n

That said, Australia\u2019s chronic property undersupply, strong population growth, and ongoing urbanisation trends suggest we\u2019ll still see values double in many areas\u2014just not uniformly, and not always in 10 years.<\/p>\n

Sydney house price growth over the last 10 years<\/span><\/h2>\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
<\/div>\n

Looking at Sydney\u2019s house price growth<\/a> over the last 10 years, values in Australia\u2019s harbour city have doubled.<\/p>\n

As you can see in the chart below, Sydney\u2019s house price growth has steadily increased over the entire 14-year period listed in SQM\u2019s research, with the exception of a minor dip in values around 2019 and again when interest rates started rising in 2022<\/p>\n

Overall, Sydney\u2019s median house price has grown an impressive 97% over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

The majority of Sydney\u2019s property price growth occurred during the initial 2021-2022 pandemic-induced property boom, with levels rising again through late 2023 and into this year.<\/p>\n

Sydney's asking property prices graph<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Sydney<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property type<\/th>\nMedian price<\/th>\n12-month change<\/th>\n3 year (pa) change<\/th>\n7 year (pa) change<\/th>\n10 year (pa) change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
All houses<\/td>\n$2,038,727<\/td>\n5.9%<\/td>\n5.3%<\/td>\n6.0%<\/td>\n6.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3-br houses<\/td>\n$1,753,274<\/td>\n5.8%<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n5.1%<\/td>\n5.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All units<\/td>\n$854,431<\/td>\n6.8%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-br units<\/td>\n$898,035<\/td>\n4.0%<\/td>\n5.5%<\/td>\n2.5%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combined<\/td>\n$1,557,155<\/td>\n5.8%<\/td>\n5.1%<\/td>\n4.9%<\/td>\n5.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source:<\/strong> SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Melbourne house price growth over the last 10 years<\/span><\/h2>\n

Similarly, looking at Melbourne\u2019s house price growth<\/a> over the last 10 years, values in Australia\u2019s southern city have also doubled.<\/p>\n

Unlike Sydney, the data shows that while the Melbourne property market has enjoyed a consistent rise in property values, it has not grown as strongly over the last couple of years in part related to the challenges with the local economy.<\/p>\n

Having said that, over the 10-year period, Melbourne\u2019s house prices have grown 96.15%.<\/p>\n

However Melbourne apartments values have floundered over the last decade, meaning anyone buying an established apartment in Melbourne at present would be able to purchase it at below replacement cost, meaning there is considerable inbuilt intrinsic value.<\/p>\n

Melbourne's asking property prices graph<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Melbourne<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property type<\/th>\nMedian price<\/th>\n12 month change<\/th>\n3 year (pa) change<\/th>\n7 year (pa) change<\/th>\n10 year (pa) change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
All Houses<\/td>\n$1,278,290<\/td>\n1.8%<\/td>\n2.6%<\/td>\n3.5%<\/td>\n6.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3-br Houses<\/td>\n$1,147,243<\/td>\n1.8%<\/td>\n2.0%<\/td>\n2.7%<\/td>\n5.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All Units<\/td>\n$628,365<\/td>\n3.5%<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-br Units<\/td>\n$604,020<\/td>\n1.4%<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n1.4%<\/td>\n2.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combined<\/td>\n$1,073,175<\/td>\n1.9%<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n3.0%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/strong>SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Brisbane house price growth over the last 10 years<\/span><\/h2>\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
<\/div>\n

It\u2019s much the same for\u00a0 Brisbane\u2019s house price growth<\/a> over the last 10 years, as values in Queensland\u2019s largest city have also doubled.<\/p>\n

As you can see in the chart below, the majority of Brisbane\u2019s house price growth occurred during the 2021 pandemic property market boom, with prices surging again from late 2023 through to today.<\/p>\n

Brisbane's asking property prices graph<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Brisbane<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property type<\/th>\nMedian price<\/th>\n12 month change<\/th>\n3 year (pa) change<\/th>\n7 year (pa) change<\/th>\n10 year (pa) change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
All Houses<\/td>\n$1,232,304<\/td>\n12.5%<\/td>\n10.5%<\/td>\n10.5%<\/td>\n8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3-br Houses<\/td>\n$1,013,013<\/td>\n10.4%<\/td>\n8.0%<\/td>\n9.7%<\/td>\n7.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All Units<\/td>\n$714,923<\/td>\n17.8%<\/td>\n17.0%<\/td>\n9.4%<\/td>\n6.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-br Units<\/td>\n$680,606<\/td>\n13.5%<\/td>\n16.4%<\/td>\n9.2%<\/td>\n6.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combined<\/td>\n$1,102,374<\/td>\n13.2%<\/td>\n11.3%<\/td>\n10.2%<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/strong>SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Adelaide house price growth over the last 10 years<\/span><\/h2>\n

Values in the South Australian capital have grown strongly over the last 10 years.<\/p>\n

As you can see by the chart below, the majority of that increase has occurred since the pandemic boom when an otherwise very stable property market skyrocketed in line with a nationwide property surge.<\/p>\n

Unlike values in Sydney, Melbourne, or Brisbane, Adelaide\u2019s property prices then continued to rise sharply through 2023 and into 2024.<\/p>\n

Adelaide's asking property prices graph<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Adelaide<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property type<\/th>\nMedian price<\/th>\n12 month change<\/th>\n3 year (pa) change<\/th>\n7 year (pa) change<\/th>\n10 year (pa) change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
All Houses<\/td>\n$1,010,891<\/td>\n11.6%<\/td>\n12.7%<\/td>\n10.3%<\/td>\n7.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 br Houses<\/td>\n$925,047<\/td>\n12.8%<\/td>\n11.5%<\/td>\n9.9%<\/td>\n7.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All Units<\/td>\n$538,904<\/td>\n16.5%<\/td>\n16.4%<\/td>\n8.5%<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 br Units<\/td>\n$533,662<\/td>\n12.2%<\/td>\n15.2%<\/td>\n9.2%<\/td>\n6.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combined<\/td>\n$926,024<\/td>\n12.1%<\/td>\n13.1%<\/td>\n10.0%<\/td>\n7.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/strong>SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Perth house price growth over the last 10 years<\/span><\/h2>\n

Looking at Perth\u2019s house price growth over the last 10 years, values in Western Australia's capital have generally experienced very low levels of growth.<\/p>\n

As you can see on the chart below, Perth\u2019s property prices saw a small but gradual decline between 2014 and the 2021 pandemic boom, before upticking in line with the rest of the country over the last 17 months.<\/p>\n

The strongest uptick has occurred in the first two months of 2024.<\/p>\n

Perth\u2019s asking property prices graph<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Perth<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property type<\/th>\nMedian price<\/th>\n12 month\u00a0 change<\/th>\n3 year (pa) change<\/th>\n7 year (pa) change<\/th>\n10 year (pa) change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
All Houses<\/td>\n$1,125,006<\/td>\n14.2%<\/td>\n14.6%<\/td>\n7.4%<\/td>\n4.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3-br Houses<\/td>\n$994,016<\/td>\n14.0%<\/td>\n13.1%<\/td>\n7.4%<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All Units<\/td>\n$649,670<\/td>\n26.5%<\/td>\n17.2%<\/td>\n7.2%<\/td>\n3.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2-br Units<\/td>\n$615,105<\/td>\n22.2%<\/td>\n15.6%<\/td>\n6.8%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Combined<\/td>\n$1,000,524<\/td>\n16.0%<\/td>\n14.9%<\/td>\n7.3%<\/td>\n4.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/strong>SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

Which Australian city has the best result?<\/span><\/h2>\n

The data differs for each of Australia\u2019s 5 major capitals, but there is a clear trend throughout\u2026 growth.<\/p>\n

The data shows that in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Adelaide, house prices have increased by an impressive 80-100%.<\/p>\n

Perth has enjoyed a lower but relatively stable 4.3%.<\/p>\n

House prices over the last 10 years in each major Australian city<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
City<\/th>\nMedian house price<\/th>\nGrowth per annum<\/th>\nTotal 10-year growth<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Sydney<\/td>\n$2,038,727<\/td>\n5.9%<\/td>\n6.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Melbourne<\/td>\n$1,278,290<\/td>\n1.8%<\/td>\n6.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brisbane<\/td>\n$1,232,304<\/td>\n12.5%<\/td>\n8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Adelaide<\/td>\n$1,010,891<\/td>\n11.6%<\/td>\n7.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perth<\/td>\n$1,125,006<\/td>\n14.2%<\/td>\n4.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: <\/strong>SQM Research<\/a>, May 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

While the figures for house price growth over the past 10 years are impressive, history shows that some areas and properties outperform others in terms of capital growth by an additional 50-100%.<\/p>\n

In other words, strategic property investors can outperform the averages.<\/p>\n

And there is no reason why those property investors who buy an investment-grade property today should not see their property\u2019s value double within the next 7 to 10 years.<\/p>\n

In the medium term, our property markets will be underpinned by 3 factors:<\/p>\n