{"id":180853,"date":"2024-04-07T16:30:08","date_gmt":"2024-04-07T06:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=180853"},"modified":"2024-03-21T09:18:42","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T22:18:42","slug":"rapid-population-growth-and-its-consequences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/rapid-population-growth-and-its-consequences\/","title":{"rendered":"Rapid population growth \u2013 and its consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cRapid population growth \u2013 at rates above 2 per cent, common in most developing countries today \u2013 acts as a brake on development. Up to a point, population growth can be accommodated\u2026 but the goal of development extends beyond accommodation of an even larger population; it is to improve people\u2019s lives. Rapid population growth in developing countries has resulted in less progress than might have been \u2013 lost opportunities for raising living standards, particularly among the large numbers of the world\u2019s poor.\u201d<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s an extract from a 1984\u00a0World Bank report<\/a>\u00a0\u201c The Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

It defines \u201crapid\u201d as growth above 2 percent and its focus was on developing countries.<\/p>\n

Advanced economies were not trying to grow populations at the same speed as those of the third world.<\/p>\n

Except for us. South East Queensland \u2013 promoted by growth boosters as a \u201chotspot\u201d \u2013 is growing at 2.2%.<\/p>\n

Sydney and Melbourne, while larger and growing numerically by more, are growing by around 1.5% per annum for comparison.<\/p>\n

Unrestrained growth has many supporters in the big end of town.<\/p>\n

But the consequences of rapid growth \u2013 fuelled mainly by record immigration under Federal Government policies \u2013 are being felt acutely by many more others.<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n

Housing shortage<\/span><\/h2>\n

The most obvious evidence of these adverse consequences is the current housing shortage.<\/p>\n

We simply are not building enough homes, fast enough, to accommodate these levels of rapid growth \u201chot spots.\u201d<\/p>\n

Worse, new housing approvals are falling to record lows at a time of record demand growth.<\/p>\n

Rapid rises in interest rates, construction industry supply chain issues, trade shortages, regulatory burdens \u2026. choose your explanation from a wide variety of options.

<\/div><\/p>\n

They all mean the same thing: more demand than there is supply.<\/p>\n

Oddly, the \u201chousing crisis\u201d has been pigeonholed as a supply problem only.<\/p>\n

Few talk about the law of \u201cdemand and supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

It seems it\u2019s now just the law of supply.<\/p>\n

The focus on housing shortages and people without homes is one thing.<\/p>\n

It is also leading to excessive costs for those with roofs of their own \u2013 whether rented or purchased.<\/p>\n

Rents are surging and vacancies falling, causing significant cost of living pressures for the third of our society who rent, while those with recent mortgages are similarly stretched.<\/p>\n

As a result, consumers are cutting back on spending across a range of discretionary items.<\/p>\n

So where demand growth exceeds supply, costs increase \u2013 leading to consumer cutbacks.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s an adverse rapid growth consequence few talk about.<\/p>\n

Other rapid growth consequences are far less discriminatory<\/span><\/h2>\n

In January, large parts of South East Queensland suffered power outages during a period of intense heat.<\/p>\n

The heat was nothing out of the ordinary for a Brisbane summer, and it wasn\u2019t (we are assured) the energy grid that failed due to generation shortages, but local infrastructure that couldn\u2019t cope with demand (air conditioners, mainly).<\/p>\n

Policies of accommodating an increased population via increased population density have been around for a long time.<\/p>\n

But policies to upgrade local infrastructure to support those local density increases haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The \u201cdensity is destiny\u201d mantra - parroted for more than 30 years - has almost entirely been around population and housing: little has been said about the wider infrastructure consequences of putting more people in the same space.<\/p>\n

As the World Bank noted 40 years ago, the objective of growth should be to improve people\u2019s lives, not worsen them.<\/p>\n

Hospital shortages are another obvious sign of rapid growth consequences with ambulance ramping times increasing as the hospital system is stretched by rapid increases in demand.<\/p>\n

Hospitals are expensive things to build or expand, and they take a lot of time to build.<\/p>\n

Keeping pace with rapid population growth is a Sisyphean challenge.<\/p>\n

Schools will also soon be a telling pressure point.<\/p>\n

I reflected on a possible looming school shortage nearly two years ago.<\/p>\n

\"School6\"<\/p>\n

On latest population projections for South East Queensland, there could be another 500,000 school-age kids looking for classrooms.<\/p>\n

We either move to much bigger class sizes or build new schools.<\/p>\n

Independent Schools Queensland (non-government and non-Catholic) estimates the need for a new P-12 school of 1000 students each year for the foreseeable future, just within their network.<\/p>\n

Finding sites within urban growth boundaries won\u2019t be easy.<\/p>\n