{"id":188963,"date":"2025-05-04T20:29:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T10:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/?p=188963"},"modified":"2025-05-13T18:41:07","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T08:41:07","slug":"labor-just-won-the-election-and-theyre-about-to-pour-petrol-on-our-housing-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/labor-just-won-the-election-and-theyre-about-to-pour-petrol-on-our-housing-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Labor Just Won the Election \u2014 and They\u2019re About to Pour Petrol on Our Housing Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\" data-start=\"200\" data-end=\"335\">Australia is in the grip of a housing crisis \u2014 and if you're hoping our new government will be the solution, I hate to break it to you\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"337\" data-end=\"371\">They might just make things worse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"373\" data-end=\"638\">While Labor\u2019s fresh election win was met with plenty of optimism, especially around their promise to tackle housing affordability, when you look past the headlines and into the details, it becomes clear that their policies could pour petrol on an already raging fire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"968\">You see, we\u2019ve already got an undersupplied rental market, construction costs are through the roof, builders are going bust left, right and centre, and skilled trades are in short supply.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"968\">Yet somehow, the government thinks now is the time to ambitiously target 1.2 million new homes \u2014 a figure that\u2019s more fantasy than feasible.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1277\">At the same time, they're flirting with policies that punish the very investors who provide rental accommodation \u2014 think adding new compliance burdens - all this while encouraging strong migration and population growth that will only increase housing demand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1279\" data-end=\"1355\">It\u2019s a classic case of good intentions with potentially disastrous outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>If you take a closer look \u2014 and remove the political spin \u2014 it\u2019s clear that while Labor\u2019s policies may be well-meaning, they are largely demand-side focused, without meaningfully addressing the chronic supply shortage plaguing Australia\u2019s housing sector.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, we\u2019re likely to see even more pressure on property prices in the years ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s unpack what\u2019s happening \u2014 and why.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-post-fullsize wp-image-188961 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis-800x533.png\" alt=\"Anthony A Fuelling Housing Crisis\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis-800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis-1038x692.png 1038w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis-600x400.png 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-housing-crisis.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"1-labors-first-home-buyer-support-will-surge-demand\">1. Labor\u2019s First-Home Buyer Support Will Surge Demand<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Labor has promised to significantly expand support for first-home buyers.<br \/>\nThis includes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Allowing <strong>first-home buyers to purchase with just a 5% deposit<\/strong> without needing to pay expensive Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"the_sentiment_campaign_body_\"><\/div><\/li>\n<li><strong>Raising the property price caps<\/strong> in many regions, meaning more expensive properties now qualify for assistance.<\/li>\n<li>The existing <strong>\"Help to Buy<\/strong>\" shared equity scheme will also be broadened.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>On the surface, this sounds wonderful for aspiring homeowners, but economically, it\u2019s a recipe for disaster.<\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<p>Because injecting more buyers into the market with easier access to credit <strong>turbocharges demand<\/strong>, without adding new stock immediately.When you give buyers more firepower but don't create enough new homes, the natural result is <strong>price inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve seen it before: Every time first-home buyer incentives are expanded, it boosts demand and temporarily helps individuals into the market, but collectively it pushes prices even higher for everyone.<\/p>\n<div class=\"notes\"><div class=\"notes-inner\"><span class=\"icon\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/themes\/oldpaper\/img\/note.svg\" alt=\"pencil icon\"><\/picture><\/span><p><span class=\"tips-notes\">Note: <\/span> Labor's policy addresses affordability for individuals <em>in the short term<\/em> but worsens affordability <em>systemically<\/em> in the long term. <\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"2-immigration-policy-population-growth-will-outpace-housing-growth\">2. Immigration Policy: Population Growth Will Outpace Housing Growth<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>At the same time, Labor has made it clear they will <strong>not slow immigration<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Australia\u2019s immigration intake is forecast to remain high, with <strong>around 1.8 million new migrants expected over the next five years<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>This figure includes international students, skilled migrants, and family reunification streams.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There\u2019s no question that immigration is vital for Australia's economy \u2014 especially to fill workforce shortages.<\/p>\n<p>But in the context of an already under-supplied housing market, it acts as a huge demand-side shock.<\/p>\n<p>Most new migrants settle in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, the same cities already experiencing severe housing shortages.<\/p>\n<p>As I\u2019ve explained many times on Property Update:<\/p>\n<p>\"We simply can\u2019t accommodate record migration flows when we aren\u2019t building enough new homes.\"<\/p>\n<p>Labor\u2019s failure to meaningfully tie immigration policy to housing supply realities will add further fuel to already stretched property markets.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-post-fullsize wp-image-188962 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis-800x533.png\" alt=\"Anthony A Fuelling Immigration Crisis\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis-800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis-1038x692.png 1038w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis-600x400.png 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/anthony-A-fuelling-immigration-crisis.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"3-labors-supply-solutions-are-too-small-and-too-slow\">3.\u00a0 Labor\u2019s Supply Solutions Are Too Small and Too Slow<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To be fair, Labor recognises the supply problem, but its proposed solutions are simply not big enough or fast enough to matter.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Their $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund aims to build 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. \u00a0That\u2019s only 6,000 homes a year<\/li>\n<li>An additional 100,000 new homes are promised under various federal-state partnerships for first-home buyers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But here's the reality:<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"what_every_property_investor_needs_to_know_body_\"><\/div><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Australia needs around 240,000 new dwellings per year to meet population growth (and that\u2019s a conservative figure).<\/li>\n<li>Currently, we're building fewer than 170,000 dwellings per year.<\/li>\n<li>Even if Labor delivers every promised new home (which is far from guaranteed), it barely makes a dent in the supply deficit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And let\u2019s not forget these headwinds\u2026<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A severe shortages of skilled tradespeople<\/li>\n<li>Soaring construction costs (up over 30% over the past three years)<\/li>\n<li>Ongoing planning bottlenecks and NIMBY resistance at local councils<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In other words, their supply-side solutions are a drop in the ocean compared to the tsunami of new demand they are encouraging.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"the-hidden-problem-state-taxes-broken-systems-and-a-lack-of-workers\">The Hidden Problem: State Taxes, Broken Systems, and a Lack of Workers<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While the federal government is throwing money at housing supply, here\u2019s what\u2019s not being talked about:<\/p>\n<p>A huge chunk of the cost of building a home isn\u2019t just labour and materials, \u00a0it\u2019s taxes, levies, and charges paid straight to state governments.<!-- <div class='gam-all googlead' id='div-gpt-ad-1599568850982-0' style='width: 320px; height: 480px;'>\r\n  <script>\r\n    googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1599568850982-0'); });\r\n  <\/script>\r\n<\/div> -->\r\n\r\n<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"multi_million_dollar_property_portfolio_body_\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p>Once upon a time, providing infrastructure like roads, water, sewerage, and parks was seen as the state government's responsibility.<\/p>\n<p>But not anymore.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ve shifted the cost onto developers, who naturally pass it straight onto buyers.<\/p>\n<p>So in reality, any federal funding aimed at boosting housing supply is just a backdoor subsidy to the states, helping them maintain their revenue streams, not necessarily building more homes faster.<\/p>\n<p>And even if the money was perfectly targeted, there\u2019s a bigger problem:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Who\u2019s actually going to build these homes?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>At the moment, the construction industry is already stretched thin:<\/p>\n<p>Most tradies are tied up building roads, tunnels, and bridges, thanks to the massive public infrastructure boom, while the residential construction sector is bleeding skilled workers.<\/p>\n<p>There simply aren't enough people available to deliver the number of homes we urgently need.<\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<p>Because the two main pipelines for construction workers - apprenticeships and immigration - are broken.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Apprenticeship numbers have been falling for years<\/strong>, and the system isn\u2019t producing enough new tradies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Immigration settings have failed<\/strong> to bring in the skilled construction workers we desperately need.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While Labor says it plans to tweak the migration system to prioritise more tradies, nothing concrete has been announced yet.<br \/>\nSpecialist visas seem to be on the way out, and while there\u2019s talk of including construction skills in the permanent migration intake, it\u2019s all vague promises at this stage.<\/p>\n<p>This is all just another example of well-meaning policies that look good on paper but won\u2019t fix the real, structural problems driving Australia\u2019s housing crisis.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-post-fullsize wp-image-188912 img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM-800x533.png\" alt=\"rising property prices\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM-800x533.png 800w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM-1038x692.png 1038w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM-600x400.png 600w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23-2025-07_58_38-AM.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"the-real-risk-a-two-speed-housing-market\">The Real Risk: A Two-Speed Housing Market<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>One likely outcome is a <strong>two-speed housing market<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Well-located properties in capital cities (especially Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane) will become even more expensive.<\/li>\n<li>Outer suburban areas and regions will experience patchy growth at best, with affordability still a major challenge.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This will deepen the wealth gap between existing property owners and those trying to break into the market.<\/p>\n<p>It will also put enormous pressure on renters, as demand spills into the rental sector and tight vacancy rates drive rents even higher, a phenomenon we're already seeing.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"toc_link\" id=\"what-needs-to-happen-instead\">What Needs to Happen Instead?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If policymakers were serious about fixing housing affordability, they would focus on:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Accelerating approvals<\/strong> for new housing developments, particularly infill developments in established suburbs.<div class=\"adplugg-tag\" data-adplugg-zone=\"the_sentiment_campaign_body_\"><\/div><\/li>\n<li><strong>Massively investing<\/strong> in infrastructure to unlock new suburbs for development.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Incentivising private sector investment<\/strong> in build-to-rent and affordable housing projects.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Incentivise private property investors<\/strong> to provide rental accommodation for the third of Australians who are not able to I don\u2019t want to rent, rather than keep taxing them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Simply helping more buyers get loans doesn\u2019t solve the problem - it just creates more competition for too few homes.<\/p>\n<p>The only real, lasting solution is <strong>to build more homes, faster<\/strong>, in the right places.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Final Thoughts: Why Property Investors Should Pay Attention<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>From an investor\u2019s point of view, Labor\u2019s policies, ironically, <strong>represent opportunity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In the short to medium term:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>More demand + restricted supply = price growth.<\/li>\n<li>Strong population growth will underpin rental demand and rental yields.<\/li>\n<li>Quality assets in inner- and middle-ring suburbs will continue to outperform, simply because scarcity drives value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, investors must be <strong>highly selective<\/strong>. Not all locations and not every property will benefit equally.<\/p>\n<p>Strategic, investment-grade assets in supply-constrained locations will be the winners, while poor-quality stock will increasingly be left behind.<\/p>\n<p>At Metropole, we understand these dynamics intimately. Our <a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/strategic-property-plan\/\">strategic advice<\/a> helps clients position themselves ahead of the market rather than chase the crowd.<\/p>\n<p>Why not take advantage of this window of opportunity window and organise a confidential chat with one of Metropole\u2019s Wealth Strategists to discuss your options? <a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/enquiry\/\">Click here now to lock in a time.<\/a><\/p>\n<aside><strong style=\"clear: both; margin: 40px 0 20px 0; font-size: 24px; color: #000000; font-family: Oswald, Regular; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.1;\">Are you wondering how you should invest in this interesting phase of the property cycle?<\/strong><\/aside>\r\n<aside>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-182374 size-full\" style=\"max-width: 100% !important; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/03.jpg\" alt=\"Metropole Property Strategists\" width=\"800\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/03.jpg 800w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/03-300x80.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/03-600x160.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p>If you're like many property investors, you're probably wondering what's the right thing to do at present.<\/p>\r\n<p>Should you buy, should you sell, or should you just wait?<\/p>\r\n<p>You can trust the team at Metropole to provide you with\u00a0<strong>direction<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>guidance<\/strong>,\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>results<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n<p>Whether you\u2019re a beginner or an experienced investor, at times like we are currently experiencing you need an advisor who takes a holistic approach to your wealth creation and that\u2019s exactly what you get from the multi-award-winning\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/meet-the-team\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\">team at Metropole<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n<p>We help our clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through a range of services including:<\/p>\r\n<ol>\r\n<li><strong>Strategic property advice<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Allow us to build a <strong>Strategic Property Plan<\/strong> for you and your family.\u00a0 Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now! <a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/strategic-property-plan\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\" rel=\"sponsored\">Click here to learn more <\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><strong>Buyer\u2019s agency<\/strong> \u2013 As Australia\u2019s most trusted buyers\u2019 agents we\u2019ve been involved in over $4Billion worth of transactions creating wealth for our clients and we can do the same for you. Our on the ground teams in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane bring you years of experience and perspective \u2013 that\u2019s something money just can\u2019t buy. We\u2019ll help you find your next home or an investment-grade property.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/home-buying\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\" rel=\"sponsored\">Click here to learn how we can help you<\/a>.<\/li>\r\n<li><strong>Property Development<\/strong> - We enable you to become an \u201carmchair developer\u201d and get all the benefits of property development without getting your hands dirty. We take the hassles out of your investment by assisting you with all the expertise you need, from concept to completion, including construction. <a href=\"https:\/\/metropole.com.au\/develop\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\">Click here to see if it\u2019s the right way for you to grow your portfolio<\/a>.<\/li>\r\n<li><strong>Wealth Advisory<\/strong> \u2013 We can provide you with strategic tailored financial planning and wealth advice. <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthadvisory.metropole.com.au\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\" rel=\"sponsored\">Click here to learn more about we can help you<\/a>.<\/li>\r\n<li><strong>Property Management<\/strong> \u2013 Our stress-free property management services help you maximise your property returns. <a href=\"https:\/\/propertymanagement.metropole.com.au\/?utm_source=pu-postender&amp;utm_medium=referral\" rel=\"sponsored\">Click here<\/a> to find out why our clients enjoy a vacancy rate considerably below the market average, our tenants stay an average of 3 years, and our properties lease 10 days faster than the market average.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<\/aside>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia is in the grip of a housing crisis \u2014 and if you&#8217;re hoping our new government will be the solution, I hate to break it to you\u2026 They might just make things worse. While Labor\u2019s fresh election win was met with plenty of optimism, especially around their promise to tackle housing affordability, when you&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":188961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,1187],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-188963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-property-updates","category-weekly_latest_feature"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Labor Just Won the Election \u2014 and They\u2019re About to Pour Petrol on Our Housing Crisis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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