On one hand, investor lending is climbing back toward record highs.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, loans for new residential construction have plummeted to their lowest levels in more than a decade.<\/p>\n
This divergence in activity tells us something important: confidence is returning, but it\u2019s selective.<\/p>\n
And right now, the smart money is flowing toward established properties, not risky off-the-plan projects.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s unpack the data, the drivers behind these shifts, and what it really means .<\/p>\n
Investor loans rebound<\/span><\/h2>\n![\"pencil](\"https:\/\/propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/themes\/oldpaper\/img\/note.svg\")
<\/picture><\/span>Note: <\/span> Investor loans are booming again. <\/p><\/div><\/div><\/p>\nIn the year to March 2025, 196,241 new investor loans were written, just 3% shy of the all-time peak set in June 2022 when buyers were scrambling to lock in ultra-low fixed rates.<\/p>\n
![\"Avg](\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Avg-Loan-Size-800x393.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a 19% increase year-on-year, and it\u2019s more than triple the growth rate of owner-occupier loans, which crept up by just 6%.<\/p>\n
This surge is even more remarkable considering we\u2019re in a higher interest rate environment.<\/p>\n
But smart investors understand the market isn\u2019t just about interest rates \u2014 it\u2019s about timing, sentiment, and positioning.<\/p>\n
Jacob Overs, General Manager of Lending at Money.com.au<\/a>, summed it up perfectly:<\/p>\n\n\u201cWe\u2019re just shy of the investor loan peak set in 2022, but this time, the uptick in activity is happening in a very different rate environment.<\/p>\n
With rates falling from a much higher base and more cuts likely, many cashed-up investors see this as their window to strike before competition returns from owner occupiers and first home buyers.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
And he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re entering the early stages of an RBA easing cycle.<\/p>\n
Investors with equity or liquidity are using this as a buying window, stepping in ahead of the broader market recovery.<\/p>\n
Refinancing hits record levels \u2014 but it\u2019s happening quietly<\/span><\/h2>\nThe report also shows refinancing activity is back on the rise.<\/p>\n
In the 12 months to March, 554,820 loans were refinanced \u2014 up 1% overall.<\/p>\n
![\"Annual](\"https:\/\/cdn.propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Annual-refinancing-800x353.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
But what\u2019s particularly interesting is the breakdown:<\/p>\n
\n- \n
Internal refinancing<\/strong> (switching products with the same lender) is up 33%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
External refinancing<\/strong> (moving to another lender) is still down 11%, though that\u2019s a recovery from the 21% drop seen in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nThis tells us something: borrowers aren\u2019t necessarily shopping around, but they are<\/em> being proactive.<\/p>\nInvestors, in particular, are leading this shift.<\/p>\n
Investor refinancing hit a new high of 173,948 loans, narrowly beating the previous record of 173,942 set in September 2023.<\/p>\n
These are seasoned players repositioning themselves financially in preparation for the next phase of the property cycle.<\/p>\n
If you haven\u2019t reviewed your mortgage structure in the last 6\u201312 months, now\u2019s the time.<\/p>\n
Victoria: a changing of the guard<\/span><\/h2>\nOne of the most intriguing subplots in the report is what\u2019s happening in Victoria.<\/p>\n
Traditionally, Victoria has been an owner-occupier stronghold.<\/p>\n
But that\u2019s starting to shift.<\/p>\n
While national owner-occupier loan growth is sitting at 6%, Victoria has seen a sharper drop, down to 8.1% from 9.8%.<\/p>\n
At the same time, investor lending in Victoria rose 12% year-on-year.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s driving this reversal?<\/p>\n
Many investors see that the Melbourne property market is at the stage of the property cycle where Brisbane and Perth were three or four years ago and I wanted to get ahead of the curve.<\/p>\n
At the same time, incentives and affordability are playing key roles.<\/p>\n
Overs explains:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cStamp duty concessions for off-the-plan properties have provided a lifeline for some investors buying new units and townhouses.<\/p>\n
At the same time, others are offloading their rental properties due to higher taxes in the state.
<\/div><\/p>\nBut many of those homes are being picked up by first-home buyers as investment properties, thanks to their relative affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
In other words, the traditional roles are flipping.<\/p>\n
Owner-occupiers are stepping back, while investors (including first-home buyers looking to rentvest) are stepping in.<\/p>\n
This creates opportunities, particularly in inner and middle-ring Melbourne suburbs, where prices have adjusted, yields are rising, and vendor discounting is still on the table.<\/p>\n
New build loans sink to a 12-year low<\/span><\/h2>\nNow for the red flag \u2014 and this one should concern anyone watching the long-term health of our housing market.<\/p>\n
<\/picture><\/span>Note: <\/span> The number of loans for newly built dwellings has collapsed, falling to just 19,153 in the year to March 2025. <\/p><\/div><\/div><\/p>\nThat\u2019s the lowest level since September 2013 \u2014 and a whopping 42% decline from the peak of 32,964 in 2021.<\/p>\n
And the downtrend isn\u2019t over.<\/p>\n
<\/picture><\/span>Note: <\/span> Investor loans are booming again. <\/p><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n In the year to March 2025, 196,241 new investor loans were written, just 3% shy of the all-time peak set in June 2022 when buyers were scrambling to lock in ultra-low fixed rates.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a 19% increase year-on-year, and it\u2019s more than triple the growth rate of owner-occupier loans, which crept up by just 6%.<\/p>\n This surge is even more remarkable considering we\u2019re in a higher interest rate environment.<\/p>\n But smart investors understand the market isn\u2019t just about interest rates \u2014 it\u2019s about timing, sentiment, and positioning.<\/p>\n Jacob Overs, General Manager of Lending at Money.com.au<\/a>, summed it up perfectly:<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re just shy of the investor loan peak set in 2022, but this time, the uptick in activity is happening in a very different rate environment.<\/p>\n With rates falling from a much higher base and more cuts likely, many cashed-up investors see this as their window to strike before competition returns from owner occupiers and first home buyers.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n And he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n We\u2019re entering the early stages of an RBA easing cycle.<\/p>\n Investors with equity or liquidity are using this as a buying window, stepping in ahead of the broader market recovery.<\/p>\n The report also shows refinancing activity is back on the rise.<\/p>\n In the 12 months to March, 554,820 loans were refinanced \u2014 up 1% overall.<\/p>\n But what\u2019s particularly interesting is the breakdown:<\/p>\n Internal refinancing<\/strong> (switching products with the same lender) is up 33%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n External refinancing<\/strong> (moving to another lender) is still down 11%, though that\u2019s a recovery from the 21% drop seen in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n This tells us something: borrowers aren\u2019t necessarily shopping around, but they are<\/em> being proactive.<\/p>\n Investors, in particular, are leading this shift.<\/p>\n Investor refinancing hit a new high of 173,948 loans, narrowly beating the previous record of 173,942 set in September 2023.<\/p>\n These are seasoned players repositioning themselves financially in preparation for the next phase of the property cycle.<\/p>\n If you haven\u2019t reviewed your mortgage structure in the last 6\u201312 months, now\u2019s the time.<\/p>\n One of the most intriguing subplots in the report is what\u2019s happening in Victoria.<\/p>\n Traditionally, Victoria has been an owner-occupier stronghold.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s starting to shift.<\/p>\n While national owner-occupier loan growth is sitting at 6%, Victoria has seen a sharper drop, down to 8.1% from 9.8%.<\/p>\n At the same time, investor lending in Victoria rose 12% year-on-year.<\/p>\n What\u2019s driving this reversal?<\/p>\n Many investors see that the Melbourne property market is at the stage of the property cycle where Brisbane and Perth were three or four years ago and I wanted to get ahead of the curve.<\/p>\n At the same time, incentives and affordability are playing key roles.<\/p>\n Overs explains:<\/p>\n \u201cStamp duty concessions for off-the-plan properties have provided a lifeline for some investors buying new units and townhouses.<\/p>\n At the same time, others are offloading their rental properties due to higher taxes in the state. But many of those homes are being picked up by first-home buyers as investment properties, thanks to their relative affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n In other words, the traditional roles are flipping.<\/p>\n Owner-occupiers are stepping back, while investors (including first-home buyers looking to rentvest) are stepping in.<\/p>\n This creates opportunities, particularly in inner and middle-ring Melbourne suburbs, where prices have adjusted, yields are rising, and vendor discounting is still on the table.<\/p>\n Now for the red flag \u2014 and this one should concern anyone watching the long-term health of our housing market.<\/p>\n Note: <\/span> The number of loans for newly built dwellings has collapsed, falling to just 19,153 in the year to March 2025. <\/p><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n That\u2019s the lowest level since September 2013 \u2014 and a whopping 42% decline from the peak of 32,964 in 2021.<\/p>\n And the downtrend isn\u2019t over.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n
Refinancing hits record levels \u2014 but it\u2019s happening quietly<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n\n
Victoria: a changing of the guard<\/span><\/h2>\n
\n
New build loans sink to a 12-year low<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/picture><\/span>